Life in lockdown has disrupted all our lives, creating the perfect setup for putting on pounds. While social media users jokingly refer to it as the “Quarantine 15,” Rae Brager estimates she’s gained about 8 pounds since her quarantine started.

“When this all started, I thought, ‘Oh, maybe I’d better get some junk food because we'll be bored and freaked out and it's good to have comfort food,’” says Brager, 40, a pediatrician and mom of two in Toronto. “That ballooned, and now it’s around and available. None of my pants fit.”

Researchers say it’s too soon to say for sure how widespread the weight gain really is. William Dietz, MD, PhD, chair of the Sumner M. Redstone Global Center for Prevention and Wellness at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, says staying indoors means most people are less active, and many are eating more ultra-processed foods than they might otherwise. Add the anxiety that comes with a deadly pandemic, and you’ve got an ideal situation for weight gain, he says.

In a poll of more than 1,000 U.S. readers of WebMD, nearly half of the women and almost one-quarter of the men said they’d gained weight “due to COVID-19 restrictions.” A separate poll of 900 international readers found more than half of men and about a third of women reporting weight gain.

In the last 30 days, more than half a million Facebook users have engaged with terms around quarantine weight gain, including quarantine 15 and #quarantineweight gain.

For those who already struggled with obesity, gaining weight during the COVID-19 pandemic adds more risk. “Early on, we noticed that all of our patients who were immediately intubated at our institution and others had BMIs over 35,” says Caroline Apovian, MD, director of the Nutrition and Weight Management Center at Boston Medical Center. “And they were younger.” Preliminary research published in The Lancet has also found this connection.

And while calling it the “Quarantine 15” may sound cute, this phenomenon bears little resemblance to the weight some college students put on during their freshman year. And it can have much more dangerous effects.

“The ‘Freshman 15’ is typically paralleled with fun -- you’ve gone off to school by yourself, no parents, you just want to party,” says Kristin Kirkpatrick, a dietitian at the Cleveland Clinic. What we’re experiencing, on the other hand, has nothing fun about it. Plus, if a substantial number of people emerge from quarantine having gained a lot of weight, it could have a significant effect on public health. Dietz says.